Colin Kaepernick is not a victim

For those of you who may not be familiar with this story, Colin Kaepernick was the NFL quarterback who started kneeling during the national anthem, and was a big supporter of the "Take a knee" movement.

After the end of the season, Kaepernick left his team, the San Franscisco 49ers, and became a free agent.  When the next season started, he was still unsigned: none of the 32 NFL teams signed him to a contract.  And to this day, he remains unsigned.

As a result, Kaepernick made a claim: he said that he was a being blacklisted by all the NFL teams, and that the reason he was out of football and no longer playing was because he stood up for black rights in America.  He described himself as a victim who was being discriminated against because of his beliefs in black rights.

Naturally, this drew a lot of attention from the media and activists, who joined his cause, attacking the NFL and saying that the fact no team had signed Kaepernick meant the whole league was full of racists and bigots.  His supporters said this was just another sign of how terrible America is today.

But wait: let's look at the facts.  Is this actually correct?

To start with, we need to consider how pro sports works today, and in particular, the NFL.  There are two key things to know.

First, the NFL has a history of players who were convicted felons, in big trouble with the law, and yet teams put up with it because they were great players.  Ray Rice is probably the most famous case of this; he beat his girlfriend in an elevator, on camera, to the horror of everyone.  Yet, even after the video went public and everyone saw it, he still played again in the NFL.

Why?

Because you have to win in the NFL.  Coaches and managers don't last that long in the NFL; in general, if a coach or manager can't win within 3 seasons, they are fired.  This is why NFL teams will tolerate a lot from players.  The NFL has sometimes been referred to as the "National Felon League", and has been repeatedly questioned about why it tolerates such poor public (and criminal) behavior from it's players.

The bottom line is: it's about winning.  If a player has problems, but a coach or manager feels that player will help the team win, that player will get signed.  Again, right or wrong, the NFL teams are about winning.

The second thing to know is that the NFL has a very high expectation on it's players: they need to do well all the time, or they lose their job.  There is a long history of expecting high performance from players, regardless of how well they were rated coming into the league.  Take a look at the careers of Tim Couch, Johnny Manziel, or Ryan Leaf - all players who were drafted high and who were expected to do well.  When they failed, they were cut, and all of them are out of football.

Also, another reason why the NFL doesn't tolerate failure in it's players is that the USA has a very strong college system, which produces great players all the time.  In the current season (2018), we see why.  Jared Goff has lead his team to an 7-0 start, and Patrick Mahones has his team at 7-1.  Mahones is in his first season as a starter, and Goff in in his second.  Both of them came out of the college system and were given a chance.

So if a player isn't performing well, they are cut because there is no shortage of other good players from the college system for a team to choose from.  In the NFL, it's extremely common to see a player start to play badly for a few games and then get cut from the team.

How does this apply to Kaepernick?

In 2015, as a starting quarterback, he went 2-6.

In 2016, as a starting quarterback, he went 1-10.

In other words, in his last 19 games as a starting quarterback, he won only 3 games.

Now, in the NFL, if you are a quarterback who only won 3 out of 19 games, your career is most likely over.  It's not like you can argue that you weren't given a fair chance, or that there were other circumstances to explain your bad play.

No manager or coach in the NFL is going to look at a quarterback with a record of 3-16 and be impressed.  There are quarterbacks who have had better records than that and who were cut and never played again. 

So Kaepernick's claim that he is a victim just doesn't hold up.  If he had won 16 out of his last 19 games (or even 10 of them), then there would be more reason to question why no NFL team wanted to sign him, given that he had a really good winning record.  But at 3-16, it's completely understandable that a team would not be interested in signing him.  Teams need to win more than 3 out of every 19 games.

Also, there is another very important fact that Kaepernick and his supporters don't like to mention.  At the time he left the 49ers, he still had one more year left on his contract.

Kaepernick was NOT cut from the 49ers: he chose to leave the team and terminate his contract by mutual agreement.  At this time, he stated that he did not like the coach's strategy and did not think he could do well with the new coach.

In other words, he QUIT his existing team, and decided to become a free agent so he could sign with a different team.  This was a horrifically foolish thing to do, given his recent record was 3-16.

When no team signed him, he began to play the victim card, saying that the NFL was racist and had essentially thrown him out of the league because of he took a stance for black rights in America.

But this just isn't true.

Kaepernick would have still been playing football if he didn't CHOOSE to walk away from his contract.  He could have played out his last year, and perhaps he would have won a bunch of games and gone something like 8-3, which would greatly improve his record.

Kaepernick likes to spin the situation like this: He was a player who stood up for his beliefs, and as a result, he was kicked out of the league, and the NFL then conspired to make sure no team ever signed him.

But the facts are this:
1) He was a bad quarterback who won only 3 of his last 19 games, and
2) He quit his contract: he was NOT cut or thrown out of football by the league.

In other words, it's his own fault that he is out of football.  The NFL has shown repeatedly that it will put up with a lot worse behavior than kneeling during the national anthem, as long as the player does well on the field and wins games.  If any NFL team felt that Kaepernick could have helped them win, they would have signed him as quick as they could.

But they didn't.  No team signed him.

But it's not because Colin Kaepernick stood up for minority rights.  It's because he's not a good football player.